Australia may face economic crisis

30 Август, 2012


Экономисты German bank считают, that Australia, Countries differ hitherto stable economy, may soon face economic crisis. Australia will be the first recession in the last 21 year.

Experts from Australia, Deutsche Bank predicts entry into recession due to the economic crisis. Last time in this situation, the country provided 21 year ago. And this is connected with the plight of the mining industry, and it depends on which state of the Australian economy.

Rising prices in the commodity market is over, said the Australian Department of Resources. For example, Iron ore is mined in Australia fell to a level 2009 years and is now less than $100 per ton. Price of thermal coal, produced at coal deposits in Australia, fell 17% the last three months. The world's largest mining company, BHP Billiton has decided to suspend projects in Australia worth $52 billion.

This is – one problem. The second lies in the fact, China - the main buyer of Australian raw materials - is itself in financial difficulties.



The cause of the crisis in Australia will, прежде всего, continued slowdown in the Chinese economy, said Mikhail Kazakov, Director of Financial Markets Investment Company «Grandis Capital». «The Australian economy is oriented, прежде всего, on the export of raw materials, а главным потребителем является именно Китай – его доля в структуре австралийского экспорта занимает более 25%», – the expert.

The major impact on the economy of Australia is not Europe, and China, agrees Natalia Yassin chief analyst at GC «ALOR». «Firstly, for Australia is unfavorable pricing environment, established in the commodities market, which adversely affects the export. Second, China's economy has slowed significantly. Since April 2012 the growth rate of industrial production in China is not counted double digit, which respectively indicates reduced demand for raw materials», – she explains.

However, If you dig deeper, it becomes clear, which explains the decrease in demand in China. Again eropeyskim debt crisis. The crisis of Europe began to consume less Chinese imports, which is reflected in the demand for products of Australian exporters from China have, explains Jaroslav Kabakov, Rector CA «Finam», Candidate of Economic Sciences.

Overall, to a situation Australia led raw character of its economy and
export orientation, because Australia is one of ten countries - Economic Leaders. «Australia mainly exports raw materials - coal (metallurgical and steam), iron ore and steel. On designated commodity markets in recent years there is a negative price dynamics and the value of certain exports, particularly iron ore, already reached its crisis of values, keeping the possibility of a further reduction», – says Kabakov.

Exacerbates the situation in the Australian economy and to maintain high market value of national dollar, which reduces the competitiveness of exports. «However, authorities have recently taken measures to reduce the Australian dollar, slightly improve the situation», – the expert.




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